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4 juin 2007

Obama, a historic moment

Barack Obama’s victory in the primaries is a historic moment. Not only because he is the first Black who will head a presidential ticket, but also because his candidacy is powerful.

Undoubtedly, under “normal” circumstances Obama would not have made it. It is the polarising presidency of George W. Bush and the Iraq quagmire that made Obama eligible.

The American press commented at length on the frontlines that the Clinton-Obama battle for the Democratic nomination had highlighted : youth, high incomes earners, Blacks, independents for Obama; women, blue collars and more Conservative Democrats favoring Hillary Clinton.
However what appears most evident about support for Obama voters’ willingness to turn the page while the Clintons bring no fresh air in a country tired of the partisan Washington politics.

That is why Obama could be elected. Between now and November, an irrational momentum could give way to an unstoppable train in favor of Obama. He may all of sudden appear as the right man at the right time and place. By the mere election of the Illinois Senator, America would send a powerful signal to the rest of the world.

I believe America will pick John McCain because the conservative cycle American entered into back thirty years ago is still in play. Besides, reluctance to vote for an inexperienced, Black man will hang over the ballot box.
The magic of presidential politics COULD make Obama the next US President, but reality SHOULD have McCain sitting in the Oval Office in January 2009.

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